With the holiday season fast approaching, American companies are gearing up for an end-of-year spending splurge that will hopefully close out 2025 on a high note. After all, the period that covers Thanksgiving and Black Friday through to New Year’s usually brings with it a nearly trillion-dollar burst of consumer spending—which should be a welcome reprieve from a year that has seen many businesses struggling to navigate an ever-changing slate of tariffs.
But that fourth-quarter boost may prove underwhelming this year, at least if consumers’ predictions about their own spending habits are to be trusted. In a new survey of more than 1,000 American adults—conducted in late September by the market research firm HarrisX, and including questions developed by Inc.—40 percent of respondents said they anticipate their holiday gift budget will be smaller than it was last year. That is compared to 21 percent who expect it to grow, and another 32 percent who expect it to stay more or less the same.
That hesitancy is more pronounced among women than men—with 44 percent of women anticipating less spending versus 35 percent of men—and grows steeper with age, rising from 27 percent in Gen Z all the way up to 51 percent in the Silent Generation, increasing with each successive age cohort.
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